THE SPOT AND FUTURE PRICES OF INDIAN COMMODITY MARKET

Traditionally, trade good hereafters contracts are settled by physical bringing. A marketer with an unfastened place at contract termination must do bringings to neutralize the place. Similarly, a purchaser must take bringings to neutralize an unfastened place held at the contract adulthood. In malice of high transit, review, and storage costs, this colony specification was adopted to guarantee the convergence between topographic point and hereafters monetary values at the contract termination day of the month. As a consequence, the hereafters monetary value will meet to the cheapest deliverable class. This creates extra uncertainness, the alleged bringing hazard, which leads to a larger footing hazard ( Leuthold, 1992 ) . The hazard transferring and monetary value find maps of a hereafters market are damaged. Since the coming of stock index hereafters contracts and the forward market Commission ( FMC ) allows for the possibility of hard currency colony specifications. Under this system, a hereafters contract is settled by a hard currency payment transportation. The payment is dictated by a hard currency index. Consequently, the effectivity of a cash-settled hereafters contract intimations on the building of a sensible index. An optimum index should reflect the market conditions. Heterogeneity and non-storability of agricultural trade goods create troubles in building an appropriate hard currency index. As a consequence, trade good hereafters contracts continue to trust for the most portion on physical bringing colony. Further trading in the trade good derived functions in different Exchanges provides an chance to fudge their hazard and arbitrage addition from the difference in the monetary value of these trade goods.

Historical background

The hereafters trading in trade goods in India started in the ulterior portion of nineteenth century when the first trade good exchange, viz.. the Bombay Cotton Trade Association Ltd was set up for forming hereafters trading. The early twentieth century saw the mushrooming of a figure of trade good Exchanges. The chief trade good markets working in pre-independence epoch were the cotton markets of Bombay, Karachi, Ahmedabad and Indore, the wheat markets of Bombay, Hapur, Karachi, Lyallpur, Amritsar, Okara and Calcutta ; the Indian potato markets of Madras and Bombay ; the flaxseed markets of Bombay and Calcutta ; Jute and Hessian markets of Calcutta ; Bullion markets of Bombay, Calcutta, Delhi and Amritsar and sugar markets of Bombay, Calcutta, Kanpur and Muzaffarnagar. The history of organized trade good derived functions in India goes back to the 19th century when the Cotton Trade Association started hereafters trading in 1875, hardly about a decennary after the trade good derived functions started in Chicago. Over clip the derived functions market developed in several other trade goods in India. Following cotton, derivatives trading started in oil-rich seeds in Bombay ( 1900 ) , natural jute and jute goods in Calcutta ( 1912 ) , wheat in Hapur ( 1913 ) and in Bullion in Bombay ( 1920 ) . However, many feared that derived functions fuelled unneeded guess in indispensable trade goods, and were damaging to the healthy operation of the markets for the implicit in trade goods, and therefore to the husbandmans. With a position to curtailing bad activity in cotton market, the Government of Bombay prohibited options concern in cotton in 1939. There were no unvarying guidelines or ordinances. These were basically results of demands of peculiar trade communities and were based on common trust and religion. They were regulated by societal control of closely knit groups and whenever such control failed, there would be a crisis. In order to supply changeless vigil to forestall crisis, instead than battle these after they occurred, a comprehensive statute law was enacted by the Bombay State in 1947 in the signifier of the Bombay Forward Contracts Control Act. On acceptance of the Constitution of the Republic, the topic, “ Stock Exchanges and Futures Markets ” was included in the Union List and a cardinal statute law called Forward Contract ( Regulation ) Act 1952 was enacted which provided the legal model for forming frontward trading in the state and provided, inter alia, for acknowledgment of Exchanges. This model continues to be even today. One of the of import characteristics of this Act is to advise a trade good for prohibition or ordinance of forward contract. Under these commissariats, a big figure of trade goods were notified for prohibition during the 1960s which left merely a smattering of undistinguished trade goods open for frontward trade. This scenario continued for about four decennaries although the Dantawala Committee ( 1966 ) and Khusro Committee ( 1980 ) had recommended stairss to resuscitate hereafters merchandising in more agriculture trade goods. Subsequent to liberalisation of Indian economic system in 1991, a series of stairss were taken to liberalize the trade good forward markets. This found look in many studies and surveies of commissions and groups to urge reforms in trade good hereafters market. The Kabra Committee ( 1994 ) , the earliest post-1991, recommended opening up of hereafters merchandising in 17 selected trade goods, although it was non consentaneous sing some of these. Importantly, this commission was consentaneous in urging that hereafters merchandising non be resumed in instance of wheat, pulsations, non- basmati rice, tea, java, dry chili, maize, vanaspati and sugar. For most of these, it recommended that instance by instance reappraisals of suitableness of each trade good be carried out in visible radiation of developments in the hereafter. UNCTAD and World Bank joint Mission. In the Report ” India: Managing Price Risk in India ‘s Liberalized Agribusiness: Can Futures Market Help? ( 1996 ) highlighted the function of hereafters markets as market based instruments for pull offing hazards and suggested the strengthening of institutional capacity of the Regulator and the exchanges for efficient public presentation of these markets. This study besides noted that authorities intercession was permeant in some sensitive major trade goods like wheat, rice and sugar and was of the position that future markets in these trade goods were improbable to be feasible because of this. Another major policy statement, the National Agricultural Policy, 2000, besides expressed support for trade good hereafters. The Expert Committee on Strengthening and Developing Agricultural Marketing ( Guru Committee: 2001 ) emphasized the demand for and function of hereafters merchandising in monetary value hazard direction and in selling of agricultural green goods. This Committee ‘s Group on Forward and Futures Markets recommended that it should be left to interested exchanges to make up one’s mind the appropriateness/usefulness of get downing hereafters merchandising in merchandises ( non needfully of merely trade goods ) based on concrete surveies of feasibleness on a case-to-case footing. It, nevertheless, noted that: “ All the trade goods are non suited for hereafters trading.

Topographic point and future market:

Topographic point market is a market of trade goods or securities in which goods are sold for ready hard currency and delivered instantly is known as Topographic point Market. Topographic point market is existent clip market for instant sale of trade goods like grain, gold and other cherished metals, Ram french friess etc. It is a topographic point market because minutess take topographic point on the topographic point. For illustration merchandisers and bargainers go to the Fieldss and purchase the standing harvest or the newly reaped harvest at the topographic point. Since hard currency alterations hands it is besides called a Cash Market and since stock is physically delivered it is besides called physical market. The contract entered in the topographic point market becomes instantly effectual. Monetary values are settled at current monetary values. The primary activities of purchasing and selling are carried out in topographic point market. A topographic point market can run merely where necessary substructure is available. Thus cyberspace provides a topographic point market for securities. Grains, cotton and other agricultural trade goods are traded at the farms. While topographic point market provides a ready market for the farm green goods which reduces the husbandman ‘s cost on transit and repositing, non to talk of the legal hurdlings that the husbandman has to confront in trade good motion, there is a broad spread between the farm gate monetary value and consumer monetary value. The bargainers enjoy monopoly and there is less transparence in pricing. Unless the husbandman has complete cognition about the prevalent monetary value, he would be put to impossible loss.

As opposed to topographic point markets, trades are stuck for future action in the hereafter markets. A future contract can be defined as a type of fiscal contract wherein parties agree to interchange fiscal instruments like securities or physical trade goods for future bringing at a peculiar monetary value. Future contract is a standardised contract to purchase at a hereafter day of the month at a certain monetary value. The Commodities in the hereafter market can be moderately expected to be delivered within a month or so. Future market is non a ready market like a topographic point market. Future market does non affect primary activity and it is bad in nature. In the hereafter market, trades are stuck at forward monetary values. A future contract gives the holder the duty to purchase or sell. Both parties to the contract must carry through the contract. Here everything is in a fluid province until the security or trade good reaches the purchaser ‘s custodies and the consideration reaches the other party. The hereafter day of the month is called bringing day of the month and a concluding colony day of the month. The pre set monetary value is called hereafters monetary value. The monetary value of the implicit in plus on the bringing day of the month is called the colony monetary value. Future bargainers are traditionally two groups- equivocators who have an involvement in the trade good being traded like husbandmans, manufacturers and consumers and speculators who seek to do net income by foretelling market moves. Future market is full of hazard because anything might travel incorrect at any phase and the dealing may go invalid or nothingness. Stock markets all over the universe are extremely volatile and the value of the traded security may travel down at any clip. Similarly if a trade good like rough oil is traded, the occurrence of the future event may be capable to political equations between the two states ; unrest in a adjacent state may detain the bringing. Thus the future market does non run into the safety demand of concern. Trading in future market is non for the hazard averse. It is merely for those who trust others and their ain fortune. A really little per centum of future contracts turn to physical bringing.

Literature reappraisal:

The issue of monetary value find on hereafters and topographic point markets and the lead-lag relationship are subjects of involvement to bargainers, fiscal economic experts and analysts. Although hereafters and topographic point markets react to the same information, the major inquiry is which market reacts foremost. Several surveies examine whether the returns of index hereafters lead the topographic point index.In the literature, several surveies attempted to compare the impact of derived functions markets in comparing to buffer stock strategies that had been favoured since 1930s and highlighted that derived functions markets offered a more effectual and public assistance raising method of covering with monetary value volatility ( Gilbert, 1985 ) . By taking a place in the derived functions market, the manufacturer can potentially countervail losingss in the topographic point market. However, with respect to the stabilisation consequence of hereafters merchandising on the topographic point monetary values, the grounds is assorted. Newbery ( 1990 ) observes that since forward markets cut down hazard, they encourage fringe houses to provide more end product and therefore, cut down the topographic point monetary value. Furthermore, forward markets concentrate trading in one location and cut down information and other dealing costs, which can besides take down monetary values. Similarly, Netz ( 1995 ) and Morgan ( 1999 ) concluded that the degree of stock lists held in the topographic point market will be determined by the basis3and will guarantee a more efficient procedure of private storage, which in bend, ensures a smoother form of monetary values in the topographic point market. Harmonizing to Turnovsky and Campbell ( 1985 ) , since forward markets cut down the monetary value hazard of keeping stock lists, larger stock lists are held and monetary values tend to stabilise as a effect. Conversely, Kawai ( 1983 ) shows that when the storage is capable to dazes, increased storage can destabilise monetary values. It is besides revealed that hazard decrease encourages manufacturers to set about more hazardous investing undertakings, and hazardous investing destabilise topographic point monetary values ( Newbery, 1987 ) . Similarly, Cox ( 1976 ) finds that in many markets, frontward trading is bracing whereas Figlewski ( 1981 ) and Simpson and Ireland ( 1985 ) conclude that opposite is true. Schroeder and Mintert ( 1988 ) extend the above analysis to monetary value informations of Amarillo, Kansas City, Dodge, and Illinois Direct. While Amarillo, Kansas City and Dodge City are three of the 27 coverage Stationss included in USFSP, Illinois Direct is non. Hedging hazard was reduced in all the four markets, with the greatest decrease for tips that meet the contract weigh specifications. Note that both Elam ( 1988 ) and Schroeder and Mintert ( 1988 ) follow the hard currency index as a placeholder for the hereafters monetary value, an attack that may be dependable merely during the adulthood month. Kenyon, Bainbridge, and Ernst ( 1991 ) use existent station hard currency colony hereafters monetary value informations. Using Oklahoma City and Southwest Virginia auction informations as hard currency monetary values, they find the footing discrepancy was smaller after the debut of hard currency colony when compared to physical bringing. However, the decreases in discrepancy are non statistically important. An analysis of the footing prediction mistake, utilizing Virginia informations, besides suggests that hard currency colony provides small betterment. On the other manus, hard currency and hereafters monetary values have become more extremely correlated since the acceptance of hard currency colony.

It has been found that hard currency colony improved the fudging map of both hereafters contracts ; see, for illustrations, Kenyon, Bainbridge, and Ernst ( 1991 ) ; Rich and Leuthold ( 1993 ) ; Kimle and Hayenga ( 1994 ) ; Ditsch and Leuthold ( 1996 ) ; Lien and Tse ( 2002 ) ; and Chan and Lien ( 2002, 2003 ) . This paper, alternatively, analyzes the effects of hard currency colony on the monetary value find map of a hereafters market as applied to both feeder cowss and live/lean pig instances. More specifically, the feedback steps proposed by Geweke ( 1982 ) will be used to compare the relationships between topographic point and hereafters monetary values before and after hard currency colony was in topographic point. Varangis and Larson ( 1996 ) cited several illustrations in the instance of cotton and oil in Mexico and Algeria, where group of manufacturers is represented by an agent who trades on their behalf. In making so, lower limit monetary values for end product could be guaranteed and therefore, hazard is reduced for an single bargainer for the cost of a little premium. Other such illustrations are provided by Claessens and Duncan ( 1993 ) and World Bank ( 1999 ) . Harmonizing to Pennings and Leuthold ( 1994 ) fudging effectivity is related to trading volume and this relationship is more outstanding when the fudging effectivity takes market deepness hazard into history. Having evaluated the fudging effectivity by taking into account footing hazard and market deepness hazard and analyzing the overall hazard decrease capacity of the derived functions contract, they concluded that fudging effectivity is an of import determiner in explicating the derived functions contract volume. Hedging effectivity is related to the service design- the nucleus concern of derived functions exchange. Harmonizing to them, the factors, which influence the usage of derived functions are perceived public presentation, hazard attitude, perceived hazard exposure, market orientation, etc. In the finance literature, several factors such as house ‘s hazard exposure, its growing chance, the degree of wealth, managerial hazard antipathy, fiscal hurt costs and the handiness to funding influence the acceptance of trade good derived functions ( Visvanathan, 1998 and Koski and Pontiff, 1999 ) . Several writers identify experience, instruction, endeavor size, expected income alteration from fudging as factors act uponing the usage of derived functions contracts ( Patrick, et Al, 1998 ) . In India, derivatives trading was strangulated owing to ban/prohibition from clip to clip. The trading has picked up merely in recent clip, peculiarly after 2002. For some primary trade goods biweekly monetary values informations are available since 1996-97, whereas for some trade goods such as cotton, sugar, gum elastic, metals, etc, they are available for latest old ages ( 2003 and 2004 ) on a day-to-day footing. With the limited information in manus, this survey attempts to measure the public presentation of trade good derived functions markets in India. The surveies researching the monetary value find function and the lead slowdown relationship between hereafters and topographic point monetary values have followed a process that is based on monetary value series being non-stationary ( Asche and Guttormsen, 2002 ) , i.e. , to prove the being of a long-term relationship between the topographic point and future monetary values by look intoing whether the information series are co-integrated.

In the Indian trade good derived functions markets, most of the monetary value series are found to be non-stationary with no inclination to return back to an underlying tendency value as they typically exhibit ‘random walk ‘ belongingss, i.e. , today ‘s monetary values can non be used to foretell future monetary values. However, differencing the information runs the disadvantage of losing information about underlying long run relationships between monetary values. Therefore, the relationship and co-movement between the monetary values is examined in a co-integration model in which additive combinations of non-stationary variables could be identified. Recent surveies have shown assorted consequences on hereafters trading and its influence on topographic point monetary value volatility, depending on the trade good and the underlying market conditions. Golaka C Nath and Tulsi Lingareddy, in the Economic & A ; Political Weekly, have referred to a figure of writers on the issue. The Abhijit Sen panel has now said that the informations available to it was non sufficient to come up with conclusive grounds on the connexion. These include Kamara ( 1982 ) who found that debut of trade good hereafters merchandising by and large reduced or at least did non increase hard currency monetary value volatility, Singh ( 2000 ) who probed Hessian hard currency monetary value variableness before and after the debut of hereafters merchandising ( 88-97 ) and concluded that the hereafters market has reduced the monetary value volatility in the Hessian topographic point market, Dasgupta ( 2004 ) who found a co-movement among hereafters monetary values, production determinations and stock list determinations, Yang ( 2005 ) who showed that an unexpected addition in hereafters trading volume caused an addition in spot monetary value volatility and Sahi ( 2006 ) who suggested that the volatility had non changed with the debut of hereafters in wheat, Curcuma longa, sugar, cotton, natural jute and soya oil. The Abhijit Sen panel has now said that the informations available to it was non sufficient to come up with conclusive grounds on the connexion. Sen, nevertheless, suggested in separate note that a prohibition on wheat, rice, toor and urad trading should go on, singling wheat for particular reference.

Topographic point and Future Monetary values Convergence

While legion surveies have examined the relationship between topographic point and future monetary values for assorted types of trade goods as besides for fiscal assets, empirical grounds in this respect is assorted. In the literature, there are two strands on the monetary value formation procedure of trade good hereafter monetary values. One in which, the inter-temporal relationship between hard currency and future monetary values are explained by the cost of carry of the trade good, i.e. , future monetary values should ne’er be less than the topographic point monetary value plus storage and involvement cost ( Brennan, 1958 and Telser, 1958 ) . In the instance of 2nd, future monetary values are split into an expected hazard premium and a prognosis of a future topographic point monetary value ( Breeden, 1980 and Hazuka, 1984 ) . In America, monetary value find efficiency of hereafters market has been far investigated for all types of hereafters viz ; trade good hereafters, equity hereafters and currency hereafters etc. Stensis ( 1983 ) , Garbade and Sibler ( 1983 ) , French ( 1986 ) , Chan ( 1992 ) , Cheung and Fung ( 1997 ) , Hall et al. , ( 2001 ) , Yang Jian et al. , ( 2001 ) , Campbell and Diebold ( 2002 ) and Isabel and Gilbert ( 2004 ) examined the causal relationship between the topographic point and hereafters monetary value on Chicago Board of Trade ( CBOT ) and they observed that topographic point market significantly followed the hereafters market and the hereafters market monetary value motions provides a footing for foretelling the prospective topographic point market monetary value alterations. In this instance, footing is expressed as a amount of an expected premium and an expected alteration in the topographic point monetary value. For the future monetary value to be an indifferent forecaster of subsequent topographic point monetary value, i.e. , Et ( P ( T, T ) peers zero, the future monetary value should take the topographic point monetary value ( Garbade and Silber, 1983 ) . There are besides statements in favor of opposite hypothesis, that topographic point monetary value leads future monetary values ( Silvapulle and moosa, 1999, Quan, 1992, Moosa, 1996 ) . The topographic point monetary values can be monetary value taking if the convenience output is high plenty. Harmonizing to Pindyck ( 2001 ) , the spread between the hereafter monetary values and topographic point monetary value gives a direct step of the fringy value of the storage for a trade good termed instead, as fringy convenience output ( MCY ) . Future monetary value could be greater or less than the topographic point monetary value depending on the magnitude of the net ( of storage costs ) MCY. For the future monetary value to be an indifferent forecaster of the topographic point monetary value, the hereafter and topographic point monetary values must be relative that is the footing should be changeless and the market is said to be efficient. For case, Asche and Guttormsen, ( 2002 ) found that the hereafter and topographic point monetary values in the instance of gas oil formed a stable long-term relationship and the monetary values were relative ( footing being changeless ) bespeaking that future monetary value leads the topographic point monetary value. If a1=0, a alteration in the footing will be atleast partially corrected by a alteration in the topographic point monetary value, in that instance topographic point monetary value will take the future prices4. If a2=0, a alteration in the footing will be atleast partially corrected by a alteration in the future monetary value, in which instance, future monetary value will take the topographic point prices.In other words, the statement of hazard decrease through fudging remainders on the premiss that the topographic point and hereafter markets move together so that losingss in one market can be made good through additions in other market. Risk decrease or monetary value find map is conditioned by the fact that hereafters markets must be able to foretell the subsequent hard currency monetary value at adulthood. At adulthood, the hereafter monetary values become tantamount to hard currency monetary values except for some dealing costs and quality premium. If the hereafter monetary values are a contemplation of future demand and supply conditions of the market, so they are considered to exercise influence on the stock list keeping. If future monetary values are falling, it indicates that either future demand would fall or future supply would ease. This would bring on bargainers to cut down stock list stock, which finally consequences in autumn in topographic point monetary values ( Singh, 2004 ) .

Methodology

The information for this paper is used is secondary in nature, which is collected from the sites of forward market committee and the MCX and NCDEX sites. The information collected is analyzed by happening out the correlativity between topographic point and the hereafter monetary values of the trade good market. For this intent foremost the information is converted in to month wise informations. The standard divergence of the information is calculated in order to happen out the divergence from the mean. It has helped to happen out the fluctuation in the topographic point and future monetary values. It has collected the information of the entire turnover of the derivative contracts and unfastened involvement in order to happen out that how many minutess are settled and the correlativity between the two. It will besides happen out the impact of future monetary values and topographic point monetary value with aid of this information. The information of MCX and NCDEX was correlated in order to happen out the possibility of the arbitrage addition. The information was non available for the certain period as for that period the trade good was taken out from the trading by the authorities. If the markets are frictionless and working expeditiously, alterations in the log-spot monetary values and alterations in the log-futures monetary values are expected to happen at same clip, while the current alteration in the log-futures monetary value is besides expected non to be related to old alterations in the log-spot monetary value ( and vice-versa ) . In this paper co integrating theoretical account with simple GARCH is used to analyze lead-lag relationship between topographic point and hereafters. It has besides used the arrested development analysis with additive relationship between topographic point and forward monetary values of the trade goods.

Datas Analysis:

This survey has included inside informations of Zeera, Zink, Channa, natural gas, Ag, gold, and rough oil. It includes the information of MCX and NCDEX. The standard divergences and correlativity is used as the techniques of informations analysis for this paper. In order to cipher the hereafter and topographic point monetary values this paper has used the undermentioned equations:

Sta?’ Sta?’1 = I±s+ I?s ( Fta?’1 a?’ Sta?’1 ) +s, T

Fta?’ Fta?’1=I±fa?’ I?f ( Fta?’1 a?’ Sta?’1 ) +f, T

Here, the explanatory variable Fta?’ St is the footing. In the cost of carry theoretical account, the footing provides the cost of capital from trading day of the month boulder clay termination day of the month, and should incorporate a negative clip tendency. An extra complication in the instance of trade good hereafters markets is that the simple cost of carry theoretical account does non ever keep. This paper has deterministic clip tendency to see whether this information forms a tendency or non.

Empirical consequence:

The trade goods which are used for this paper are Zink, Zeera, channa, natural gas, gold, Ag and rough oil. These trade goods are selected due to their big trading form and their function in trade good market. However it is found that informations for certain periods were non available. The consequences of informations for these trade goods are explained below:

The information for the channa was non available for the certain period as can be seen from the tabular array no.1 and the chart no.1. However from the available informations it can be said that there is broad scope of fluctuation in the topographic point and monetary values of the trade good as s.d. ( Standard Deviation ) in topographic point and future market is 189.28 and 5425.47. It signifies that channa is a extremely volatile trade good in the market. There are several ground are found but chief ground was that it the ratio of unfastened involvement contracts to the entire bend over. The information of NCDEX besides shows the similar consequences but the volatility is less with respects to descry and future monetary value and the correlativity between the topographic point and future monetary values is non the same. It is observed that unfastened involvement contracts at the NCDEX are less in relation to trading at MCX. The topographic point and future monetary values are less volatile and it can assist in anticipation of future monetary values at the NCDEX.

The arbitrage chances are available in different period as can be find out from the survey of table no. 1 and 3. It is to be noted that the trading in the channa was non available during certain periods. So it was hard to happen out the proper arbitrage chance.

Chart 1, Channa: Topographic point Vs Future Price at MCX

Beginning: Forward market committee

Chart 2, Spot and future informations of channa at NCDEX

Beginning: Forward market committee

In the instance of the natural gas it is observed there is great sum of correlativity between topographic point and future monetary values during the period of observation. There is less sum volatility is observed in the topographic point monetary values as compared to the channa and other trade good. The grounds for this can be the big sum of the unfastened involvement contract. Correlation between topographic point monetary value and Future monetary value for 2006-2007 is 99.20 % , 2007-2008 is 97.80 % and 2008-2009 is 99.80 % . This information reveals that there is a high grade correlativity between the topographic point and forward monetary values of the natural gas. It was further observed that the possibility of arbitrage was non available as natural gas is non traded at the NCDEX. Correlation between Open involvement and entire volume for 2006-2007 is 54.80 % ,2007-2008 is 6.20 % , 2008-2009 is 64.60 % . It can be said that in instance of the natural gas topographic point monetary values can give a intimation for the hereafter monetary values of the natural gas. This will assist the bargainers to take the forward place in this trade good.

degree Fahrenheit

Chart no. 3 Natural Gas

MCX

Spot Vs Future Price

In instance of the Zinc there is really high grade of positive correlativity for the period of survey. It means that there is a big sum of possibility that forward rate will be the future topographic point market rate for that trade good. It can be seen from the informations that Correlation between topographic point and future monetary values for 2006-2007 is 99.80 % , for 2008-2009 is 99.70 % . Further there is a big fluctuation in the topographic point monetary values and forward monetary values of the Zera. It is besides noted that there is really strong positive correlativity between unfastened involvement and entire volume for 2006-2007 is 93.00 % but in the twelvemonth 2008-2009 it is 38.40 % . it means that may contract were unsettled at the due day of the month. It besides means that topographic point rates were non harmonizing to the outlooks, so they have non honored their places at terminal of twenty-four hours.

Further in instance of Zeera besides there is high grade of positive Correlation between topographic point and future monetary values for 2006-2007 is 99.00 % and 2008-2009 is 89.70 % . It means that there is a big sum of possibility that forward rate will be the future topographic point market rate for that trade good. It is besides noted that there is really strong positive correlativity between unfastened involvement and entire volume for 2006-2007 is 49.40 % but in the twelvemonth 2008-2009 it is 84.60 % . it means that may contract were unsettled at the due day of the month. It besides means that topographic point rates were non harmonizing to the outlooks, so they have non honored their places at terminal of twenty-four hours. Further this correlativity is opposite to that of Zink. it means that market is extremely volatile and due to fluctuation in the topographic point and future monetary values there is addition in the sum of unfastened involvement contracts.

There is really high grade of positive correlativity in the petroleum oil topographic point and future monetary values during the period of survey nevertheless it is to be noted that the information for some periods were pot available. The consequence can be different if the information for full period from 2006- 2009 may be available. There is high grade of volatility in the NCDEX as compared to MCX. it is an chance for arbitrage addition for the investors. The petroleum oil appears to by the volatile trade good due to it broad dispersed demand. Correlation between topographic point monetary value and Future monetary value for 2006-2007 is 99.80 % and 07-08 is 99.9o % . Further rate of correlativity between unfastened involvement and entire volume for 2006-2007 is 73.40 % and 07-08 is 2.20 % . it means that a big sum of volatility exist in the topographic point and future monetary values and topographic point follow the forward rate of the petroleum oil. The maximal contracts are being settled every bit compared to other minutess.

This trade good provides arbitrage chance as it is traded at MCX and NCDEX both and the fluctuation in monetary value can be seen from the charts given below:

Crude Oil Spot & A ; Future Price Movement

MCX NCDEX

Beginning: Forward market committee

In instance of the Ag it is observed that there is big volatility in the topographic point monetary values and topographic point monetary value do non follow the forward monetary value in some periods. Further it is observed that topographic point and hereafter monetary values have the negative correlativity. Silver does non supply chance for the arbitrage chance.

Beginning: Forward market committee

There is high grade of correlativity in gold at MCX between topographic point monetary value and Future monetary value for 2008-2009 is 99.70 % and at the NCDEX it is really hapless at 6.40 % . There is low grade of correlativity is find between Open involvement and entire volume for 2008-2009 is ( 31.30 % ) at MCX and at NCDEX is 6.40 % for the same period. The gold monetary values are less volatile as compared other trade good.

Equally for as the arbitrage is concerned there is demand of another on-line trade good exchange as India ‘s geographic arrangement in the clip zone between East and West provides a big arbitrage chance, which has non been tapped to true potency. Another trade good exchange may assist utilizing these chances better, thereby bettering merchandising volumes of India specific contracts. Since liquidness begets liquidness and higher the volume traded more efficient is the monetary value find, another trade good exchange is likely to better efficiency of Indian markets by and large. Fifth, no uncertainty a tendency towards consolidation through amalgamations of trade good exchanges is an international phenomenon and it would be welcome if India besides has specialized trade good exchanges, which trade in a limited figure of India-centered trade good contracts. However, the end of restricting the figure of trade good exchanges should be pursued merely after Indian trade good markets have reached a sensible degree of adulthood. At this phase, when there exists a big spread, curtailing the figure of exchanges would merely ensue in restraining the growing of trade good markets in India. Last due to authorities ownership ( even if indirectly through a CPSU ) , the proposed new exchange may spur the authorities for a more active function in the trade good markets by taking some of the legal and institutional restraints such as Essential Commodities Act 1955, Forwards Contract Regulation Act 1952, APMC statute laws and Gross saless Tax Torahs of several province authoritiess, Warehousing statute laws etc. and allowing options trading and the increased engagement of Banks and FIIs in trade good markets. When the trade good markets in India are merely at a nascent phase of development, the Government and the regulators should be facilitators to develop an efficient trade good hereafters market instead than advancing a monopoly of a little figure of market participants.

An efficient market will pull a wider constituency of participants from the full trade good value concatenation i.e. authorities, manufacturers, sellers, importers, exporters etc. In the long tally, an efficient trade good market can be an alternate to market intercessions such as monetary value stabilization policies and may better gross and outgo prediction through a decreased subsidy measure of the authorities. Market participants, such as the processors and sellers, should besides happen Indian trade good exchanges attractive plenty to pull off the hazards involved during the production and selling procedures, while international market participants, both importers and exporters, would be able to explicate a predictable trade good sourcing and supply scheme.

Decision

Due to increase in communications, cardinal bank intercession the trade good monetary values has suggested that trade good monetary values are volatile in the Indian trade good market. This paper examines the grade to which trade good topographic point monetary values have converged with future market during the period of survey. With a position to mensurate this convergence, and to happen out arbitrage chance in MCX, and NCDEX, correlativity, arrested development, and standard divergence is used. The consequences indicate that correlativity coefficients themselves are non capable of observing convergence and that the arrested development – additive trials is more powerful observing any convergence between the hereafter and topographic point monetary values of Zeera, Zink, Channa, Gold Silver, rough oil and natural gas.

It is observed that there is demand of another trade good exchange to get the better of many functional insufficiencies of the bing three national on-line trade good exchanges, peculiarly with regard to delivery-based colony as a mechanism of efficient monetary value find as MCX and NCDEX do non merchandise in all the trade goods and therefore do non supply chance for arbitrage. The three online exchanges MCX, NCDEX and NMCE, during the about four old ages of their being, are yet to go a medium of efficient monetary value find. There is a clear delinking of hereafters monetary values of trade goods traded at these exchanges and the prevailing topographic point monetary values, thereby go forthing arbitrage chances, because of which existent equivocators do non happen these exchanges useful for pull offing their trade good monetary value hazards. Alternatively, the big manufacturers, consumers, importers and exporters in metal, oil and agro sectors are happening fudging at established international trade good exchanges such as LME, NYMEX and CBOT much more good Second, the contracts traded at these exchanges are chiefly those for which there already exists an constituted trading platform at International exchanges e.g. bullion, base metals, WTI and Brent-grade petroleum oil, agro trade goods and wish. Some trade goods such as Fe ore and coal, wherein India is a big manufacturer, consumer, importer and exporter are non traded at these exchanges. Besides if these exchanges give greater attending to advancing India specific contracts such ONGC-based petroleum oil hereafters ( instead than Brent and WTI based petroleum oil hereafters ) , it would convey extra advantage of switching trade good trading to Indian shores. Third, unlike the bing exchanges, which barely promote delivery-based trading, the new exchange should take to incorporate warehouse bringing by supplying an on-line trading platform so that it becomes a true platform for delivery-based hedge. All this has possible to better India ‘s portion in international trade well. The new exchange will supply non merely arbitrage chance but besides pull more investors.